Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

957
FXUS64 KEPZ 181819
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1219 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - Another round of gusty and dusty thunderstorms is expected
   through this evening.

 - Drier weather returns for the weekend, with temperatures
   returning to around 100 to 105 in the lowlands.

 - Hotter conditions with little to no chance for rain early next
   week as upper level ridging begins to strengthen.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The Borderland will be transitioning over the next couple of days
from near average temps and isolated/scattered thunderstorms to
more typical mid-June weather which is hot and dry. We still have
some modest moisture over the area today which will allow for
another late afternoon and early evening of thunderstorms with
gusty outflow winds and little rainfall for most areas. Don`t see
much difference between yesterday and today except that the Sacs
will get in on the action as well. Good agreement among CAMs to
push these outflows toward El Paso by 00Z. Did have to raise PoPs
to mention them for many areas besides the mountains. An upper
ridge currently west of the area will be slowly shifting east for
Fri and start to push the moisture out. Looks like the only areas
with storm chances tomorrow will be the mountains and far eastern
zones.

By Saturday, an elongated upper high will extend across much of
the U.S. with the CWA coming under westerly flow. This will lead
to very low dew points and temperatures warming into the 100-105
range for the lowlands. NBM temps did seem a tad low and raised a
couple of degrees by Sunday.

For next week, there is agreement among EC and GFS that a strong
upper high builds somewhere between southern AZ and southwest NM.
The exact placement will be important as a further west solution
leads to some low level moisture pushing into eastern zones and
slightly cooler highs for these areas. A further east solution
keeps the moisture out and temperatures could be 105+ for the
lowest elevations. Right now NBM is giving highs in the 100-106
range, but if the EC verifies, we could be closer to 107-110
around the RGV and 102-107 the remainder of the lowlands.
Definitely something to keep an eye on.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Looks like a replay of yesterday with thunderstorms forming over
the mountains and strong outflows pushing onto the lowlands firing
isolated to scattered thunderstorms with wind gusts over 40KTS and
blowing dust but little rainfall. Generally expect SCT-BKN100-120
BKN150-200 through the evening then decreasing clouds from west to
east after 06Z with FEW-SCT120-150 east and SKC west by the end of
the period. Winds generally west to northwest 10-15G25KTS at all
terminals but decreasing after 04Z to AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

One more afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms for all areas, but Fri will be limited to area
mountains and down into Hudspeth county. Gusty outflow winds will
be the main concern with these storms. Some brief moderate rain is
possible, especially in the mountains later this afternoon and
evening. As we go into the weekend and early next week, expect
typical June weather with hot temperatures well over 100 over the
lowlands and RH`s falling into the single digits, the Sacs may
stay above 10% but it does look like the Gila will have a period
of single digit RH`s. West winds will prevail most days into early
next week and will be 10-20mph each afternoon, so some near
critical fire weather days are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 100  76 103 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  95  67  99 /  20  20  10   0
Las Cruces               67  97  70 100 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  96  70 101 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  72  55  78 /  10  40  10  10
Truth or Consequences    69  97  69 101 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              65  90  64  92 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                   67  99  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  96  65  98 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       73  98  75 101 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                66  94  67 102 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             71 101  73 105 /  20  10  10   0
Loma Linda               66  91  68  96 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   71 100  72 104 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70  97  70 101 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  97  74 102 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65  97  66 101 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                    67 101  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 74  99  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                66  95  68 100 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                  56  84  60  90 /  10  50  10  10
Mescalero                56  85  58  89 /  10  30  10   0
Timberon                 52  81  54  86 /  10  30  10   0
Winston                  58  88  54  92 /  20  20   0   0
Hillsboro                65  95  68  98 /  10  20   0   0
Spaceport                64  98  66 101 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  89  47  93 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   63  93  62  95 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    61  94  56  98 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  91  50  93 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                  64  93  65  95 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                   64  95  64  99 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  95  64  99 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66  94  66  98 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  88  62  92 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz