Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS64 KEPZ 020429
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
929 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 826 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

 - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures through Tuesday.

 - Low end breezy conditions on Monday afternoon.

 - A backdoor cold front will bring breezy to windy east winds
   and slightly cooler air midweek.

 - the dry conditions look to continue through the start of next
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 826 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A few weeks ago we had a blocking pattern characterized by an
upper level low south of an upper level ridge. That pattern kept
our weather pretty stagnant for five days, and it looks like a
similar pattern will develop this week. Currently an upper level
ridge is centered over New Mexico, but that ridge will quickly
push off to the east by Monday afternoon as a short wave trough
rides the ridge`s coat tails. The short wave trough will give us
some off and on breezy warm west winds. The winds will help warm
our temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above average. By Tuesday
afternoon, an upper level trough will develop off the coast of the
Baja of Mexico and to the north along the central California
coast, an upper level ridge will develop. This rex block pattern
will be in no hurry to move off. The rex block will keep us dry
through Friday as the storm track will be pushed way to the
north. Jumping back to Tuesday, our high temperatures on that will
continue to run several degree above average, but late Tuesday
and into Wednesday, we will see a decent back door cold front push
across the region from the east to the west. The front will be
dry and it will usher in cooler air into the region. High
temperatures on Wednesday, will run 5 degrees below average east
of the Rio Grande and a few degrees above average west of the
river. Winds behind the front will be breezy to almost windy
especially along the west slopes of area mountains. On Thursday,
the high temperatures will be about the same as Wednesday`s highs.

For Friday, the rex block finally breaks down as a strong upper
level trough approaches the west coast. Initially we will see very
little impact from the west coast upper level trough, as it will
creep oh so slowly to the east. High temperatures for Friday
through next Sunday will continue to run 2 to 7 degrees above
average. After a two week stretch of dry weather the extended
models are beginning to hint at a return to some precipitation
chances for the end of next weekend as the west coast trough
begins to move in our direction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 826 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

We will have VFR conditions tonight and throughout the day on
Monday. Our ceilings tonight through the morning will be
unlimited, but high clouds will be on the increase in the
afternoon and we will have some high ceilings of BKN250 Monday
evening. Winds tonight through Monday morning will be light and
variable. Then in the afternoon we will see our winds swing around
to the southwest and the winds will be occasionally gusty;
24010G18KT. The low end gusty winds will drop off after sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 959 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light winds and generally Poor ventilation today with min RH
20-30%. Monday will be a better day for prescribed burning as
winds shift to the west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Vent rates
Fair to Good during the daytime hours. Weak cold front arriving
midweek will shift winds around to the east Wednesday/Thursday.
No precipitation expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  39  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            36  65  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               35  66  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               32  63  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               28  44  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    36  67  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              35  63  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   35  70  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                35  67  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       42  68  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                30  64  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             38  72  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               39  60  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   37  70  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             36  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           40  67  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            32  67  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    32  71  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 37  71  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                35  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  32  60  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                29  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 32  53  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  28  64  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                37  68  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                31  66  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             32  62  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   33  66  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    32  69  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  65  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  37  66  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   35  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  34  68  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           37  70  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               41  64  43  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice